Andy: I understand you are doing research
on the impact of carbon trading on data centers.
- What
will be the focus of your study?
US and Europe? Elsewhere as well?
Over the past two years, there has been a lot of talk
about regulation aiming at reducing datacenter energy use. In the US this partly
stems from the findings of the 2007 EPA report to Congress, which highlighted
the growing consumption of energy by datacenters, and partly because both the
Dept of Energy and the EPA are starting to gather a lot of serious data – the
kind of data you would need for a baseline for any regulation. In Europe, the
situation is more clear cut. The European officials behind the European Code of
Conduct have stated bluntly that if energy use by datacenters is not controlled,
it will be regulated.
There are, of course, many types of regulation. We’re
focusing on Carbon Cap and Trade in this report because that is already
happening in some areas, and because this type of scheme is favored by most
economists and politicians. Our primary focus is on the USA and Europe, especially the UK, although we are keeping an eye on developments elsewhere. We are focusing on
these geographies for two reasons. First, this is where most of our clients and
their customers are (The 451 Group serves the IT industry and its leading edge
clients; our sister company Tier1 Research servers the commercial datacenter
industry); and second, it is where most datacenters are, where there is most
concern over legislation, and where most significant legislation is likely to
come from, at least initially.
- What
existing and pending legislation are driving demand for this report?
This an interesting question, since the situation is
somewhat confused, and it’s certainly very fluid. To a point, some of the demand
for information among CIOs is based on some misunderstandings about Cap and
Trade and even some scaremongering. Some IT companies have been stoking up
concerns among CIOs, hoping to open a dialogue that will lead to some sales.
As it stands, none of the big cap and trade schemes in
Europe (the Emissions Trading System, or ETS) or in North America (the Western
Climate Initiative Cap-and-Trade Program, the Regional Greenhouse Gas
Initiative, and the Midwestern Greenhouse Gas Reduction Accord and the Canadian
Carbon Cap and Trade scheme) really affect datacenters directly, since they are
targeted at the biggest carbon emitters – power companies, cement companies and
the like. The American Clean Energy and
Security Act , which has just been passed by the House, will probably not directly
affect datacenters either, although this could change.
But there is a big rider on this: The regulators
mostly won’t have to pass new laws to have industries redefined as “Energy
Intensive”. Datacenters are already being seen as that by many officials. That
can be a double whammy, because energy intensive industries area also
legislated by the Clean Air Act.
And there is also a strong likelihood of more
regulation. In the UK, for example, the Carbon Reduction Commitment (CRC) mandates all businesses that
use more than 6,000 Megawatt hours a year of electricity to enter a cap and
trade scheme from 2010. If you have a datacenter that draws more 684 KW, you
are already over the limit.
3. How
urgent is this? Is this a 6 months or 18 months strategic imperative?
The urgency of this depends on what you do. If you
supply systems, software, datacenter equipment, or services, I think you need
to be thinking about any legislation might affect your products now. For
example, carbon cap and trade requires carbon measurement, and maybe carbon
accounting. Carbon measurement requires energy measurement. And requires a lot
of thinking about how you will measure, where you will measure, what you
report, and what you want to do about it.
Datacenter operators need to be thinking about all
this, and they need to understand what their customers are likely to ask for.
Suppose a customer asks for the ability to account for the carbon and energy
use associated with a service? Suppose the CFO asks for a carbon and energy projection for the next five
years. This stuff isn’t easy. The simple answer is, Don’t expect anything
dramatic in the short term, but expect carbon management to eventually become
routine.
Mike Manos, former head of Microsoft’s datacenters and
now at Digital Realty, recently put it like this: “I would bet that you as a Data Center
Manager have not been thinking of this, that your CIO has not thought about
this, the head of your facilities group has not thought about this. First
you need to start driving awareness to this issue. Next we
should heed to a call to arms.”
4. Of course I
understand this has significance for large data centers. What is the smallest
data center that this will impact?
It's difficult to say, since no proposed cap and trade
legislation is targeted at the datacenter per se, but at overall energy/carbon
use. A first step is get an
understanding of overall corporate consumption by function, by geography, by
department. That will show how much energy/carbon the datacenter is responsible
for. It can range from 10% to 75%. In
terms of size, the UK law sets a cut off point around 800 KW for the whole business.
A second point to consider is that even if Cap and
Trade doesn’t require direct registration, it will affect energy prices. Carbon
tariffs, dynamic pricing and mandated renewable energy investments, and oil and
gas shortages, will all combine to increase electricity prices, and to increase
volatility. Big datacenters may need to hedge. The short answer is that
businesses need to get on top on this. It’s going to be a business risk.
5. So
far, in your research, what seems to have jolted you a bit? Surprises?
Ho-hums?
First, we have been struck by the willingness of many IT
vendors and consultants to go to market with advice, services and products
around this area, without really understanding it. But I expect this will
change in the two years ahead, as it becomes more strategic. The top tier IT
companies have on the whole taken this very seriously and are developing a lot
of real expertise.
Second, this is a very difficult area for end user
organizations to crack. There are really three different disciplines and
vocabularies that a company needs to understand: First, there’s IT – for a lot
of us, that’s the easy bit; Facilities, which includes power and cooling; and
third, carbon accounting and markets. If you also understand how politics and
legislation works, that helps a bit too.
Another point to make is that Carbon Cap and Trade
systems are inherently difficult to get right, and to make work – witness the
machinations of the ETS and some of the lobbying in the UK ahead of the CRC. They are a kind of economic experiment, with so many variables that the
results can be unpredictable. So expect any schemes to be controversial, and,
to some, unfair, and expect a lot of “gaming”. The winners may not necessarily
be those that are the greenest, but those who have learned to play the system.
6. Reactions you are getting from data center
operations staff – willingness to look for creative solutions or just keep on
paying utility bills?
As an industry, datacenter operators take quite a hard
headed approach. They have come round quite fast to the importance of energy
conservation, because its really about saving money. But carbon is another matter – in Europe it
plays fairly well, but in the US it is low on the agenda. On the whole, there is some evidence that businesses
would rather be regulated as a group, so that the more conscientious are not a
commercial disadvantage. But it’s unclear. The most forward looking commercial datacenter
operators are the least concerned. They see this as an opportunity exploit
their efficiency. Theoretically, they can lower their costs if their own energy
costs are lower.
7. Is
there really a way to get away from carbon trading? Offshoring to Asia for example? What do you see?
The extent to which carbon trading or accounting can
be avoided will depend on the framing of the laws and on the jurisdiction. And
the extent to which anyone will actually want to avoid the carbon trading will
depend on the price of the carbon and availability of permits etc. To date, the
financial burden of being in a carbon trading scheme has been so light that it
hasn’t been worth going to great lengths to evade responsibility. But yes,
until or unless some strict laws come in that track emissions through the
supply chain, it will always be possible to outsource some responsibility.
Under the UK's CRC, it is certainly possible
to avoid responsibility for carbon emissions, because it’s based on direct
emissions – supply chain partners don’t count.
So outsourcing datacenter services, even within the country, will take
it off the books.
This has led to some grumbling about the CRC, and
suggestions that it will lead to some offshoring or “carbon laundering”…the use
of “off balance sheet” businesses to take on the carbon load. But this isn’t
necessarily a bad thing, if they are run in a carbon efficient way. This is, in
fact, an opportunity for efficient datacenter operators.
Thanks Andy! P.S. At Datacenter Dynamics in San Francisco, just last Friday, Zahl Limbuwala of the British Computer Society gave a presentation that reached similar conclusions on the topic of offshoring. But Zahl really thought the CRC legislation was very off target - punishing and unfair to those companies that had already started their EE initiatives and were now forced to work on more difficult tasks than those companies just starting out with 2008 as their baseline. He thought Americans should be careful not to be caught "asleep at the wheel" while decisions are made about data centers in legislative bodies without careful analysis in advance. Try then, to have a Green DAY!